On 27 May 2004 15:00:50 -0700,
nc@iname.com (Nikolai Chuvakhin) wrote:
[color=blue]
>fbionyourtail <fbionSPAMMYyourtail@yahSPAMREMOVoo.com> wrote
> in message news:<vdu7b0h1rv85beuv8c0jsdi50af9ehm0c7@4ax.com>. ..[color=green]
>>
>> Been looking for a good PHP based dating script that is reasonably
>> priced for a while.[/color]
>
>...
>[color=green]
>> I'm thinking that a very good dating script should be
>> able to be purchased for $200-500.[/color]
>
>I think a reality check is in order here. A successful dating
>resource has millions of members; for example, eHarmony recently
>announced they've reached four million:
>
>
http://www.eharmony.com/core/eharmon...press-4million
>
>According to an earlier press release, 24% of eHarmony members
>are paying subscribers, which is more than three times the industry
>average:
>
>
http://www.eharmony.com/core/eharmon...ress-milestone
>
>Assuming eHarmony charges about one million of its paying subscribers
>$20 a month (actually, it's somewhat more than that), you are looking
>at a MONTHLY revenue of about $20 million. Assuming no further growth,
>a measly FFO margin of 10%, and a fairly aggressive 20% discount rate,
>the value of eHarmony's future earnings as of today should be about
>(20 * 12 * 10%) / 20% = $120 million. Assuming the necessary
>infrastructure costs $100 million upfront (for reference, Google's
>hardware expenditures were $37 million in 2002 and $177 million in
>2003), the software can be valued as a call option with a spot price
>of $120 million and strike price of $100 million. This option has
>an intrinsic value of $20 million; its total value is even greater,
>but depends on time to expiration and volatility assumptions. In
>other words, under this set of assumptions, the software is worth
>at least $20/$120 = 16.67% of the business.
>
>To recap, any reasonable discussion of dating software should
>probably start with 15-20% equity interest in your company.
>Any cash compensation should be counted towards decreasing the
>developer's equity interest. These are economic realities you
>are facing...[/color]
????? Thanks for your reply but I think we are talking about a whole
other arena. The economic reality is that one thing has nothing to do
with another. If I'm looking to buy an office suite and I find MS
Office, I don't need to analyze my investments to know generally what
it should cost as in comparison to Wordperfect, etc. There is a market
for such applications and suites, not custom work.
I'm trying to reach a few thousand subscribers in a niche market
(maybe 50K - 100K at best at this point) and want to purchase a
premade script with reasonable quality. Webdate would have sufficed if
it wasn't copy protected and encoded (won't make the mistake of buying
such from small net companies.) If I want a content management system
for a small web site there are plenty available, e.g. articlemanager,
miraserver, etc. which will get the job done too. These are premade
scripts, generic, customizable, scales to a certain degree.
If I was seeking to duplicate eharmony or lava life and raised capital
to do so, I would never even think of messing around with any of the
generic scripts I mention above. In addition to support, I'd need a
script that scales well and performance optimized. That is a
completely different scenario and bears no resemblance to the reality
I and many other webmasters are attempting to accomplish.
Thanks for your reply. It is appreciated. But it does sound like the
stuff I used to get from the Harvard MBAs that worked for us when the
answer to a question was a simple yes or no!